Fourth of July Weather Forecast: What to Expect in Texas

Whether you're planning a backyard barbecue, a beach getaway or just hoping to catch fireworks under clear skies, knowing what the weather might bring on the Fourth of July is key.

With over a week to go, forecasts are starting to take shape — but how much can you trust them this far out?

Here's what extended forecasts are saying now, and how accurate those predictions really are.

What's the Fourth of July weather forecast?

The latest outlook from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center shows that most of Texas can expect near-normal to warmer-than-average temperatures on the Fourth of July, which falls during one of the state's hottest months.

However, parts of West Texas — including Midland-Odessa, El Paso and the westernmost areas of the South Plains and Panhandle — are forecast to experience below-normal temperatures.

A slightly elevated chance of precipitation is expected statewide throughout the week, though the outlook does not specify which days are most likely to see rain.

Meanwhile, the Farmers’ Almanac, which released its summer forecast in early spring, predicted “big thunderstorms” in Texas and severe weather — including possible tornadoes — stretching from Oklahoma through Arkansas and Louisiana. However, a more recent extended outlook from the publication, published in late May, offers a different tone for Texas and Oklahoma between July 1–12, calling for "sunny" and "hot" conditions.

Fourth of July forecasts by cities in Texas

While it's difficult to predict weather so far out, here's what the Weather Channel has forecasted for the Fourth of July weekend across Texas:

Austin

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 76 degrees
• High: 99 degrees
• Normal: 95 degrees
• Precipitation: 14% chance

Amarillo

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 67 degrees
• High: 90 degrees
• Normal: 92 degrees
• Precipitation: 18% chance

Dallas-Fort Worth

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 78 degrees
• High: 98 degrees
• Normal: 94 degrees
• Precipitation: 17% chance

El Paso

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 74 degrees
• High: 93 degrees
• Normal: 97 degrees
• Precipitation: 16% chance

Houston

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 79 degrees
• High: 95 degrees
• Normal: 94 degrees
• Precipitation: 18% chance

Lubbock

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 71 degrees
• High: 93 degrees
• Normal: 93 degrees
• Precipitation: 12% chance

Midland-Odessa

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 74 degrees
• High: 94 degrees
• Normal: 95 degrees
• Precipitation: 16% chance

San Antonio

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 76 degrees
• High: 97 degrees
• Normal: 94 degrees
• Precipitation: 24% chance

Tyler

• Conditions: Mostly sunny
• Low: 77 degrees
• High: 95 degrees
• Normal: 93 degrees
• Precipitation: 13% chance

Waco

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 77 degrees
• High: 98 degrees
• Normal: 95 degrees
• Precipitation: 22% chance

How accurate are long-range forecasts?

While local forecasts generally align with the Climate Prediction Center’s long-range outlook, most meteorologists remain cautious about making confident predictions beyond three days. Accuracy tends to decline sharply after that period — especially in summer, when pop-up storms, shifting pressure systems and potential tropical storm development can quickly change conditions.

Meanwhile, the almanac claims its predictions are accurate about 80% to 85% of the time. However, a review by the Columbus Dispatch found that most independent analyses suggest the almanac’s accuracy is closer to 50%.