NHC Monitoring Tropical Disturbance Ahead of Fourth of July in Texas

A new weather system in the Atlantic is being monitored for potential development and risk to the U.S. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to have 13-19 named storms, including 3-5 major hurricanes. Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in Mexico and is dissipating, but may bring rainfall to Texas. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin.

As Tropical Storm Barry loses strength over Mexico — where it made landfall in Veracruz over the weekend — the National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on a new weather system in the Atlantic that could develop and pose a direct risk to the United States.

While the Atlantic hurricane season had a quiet start, forecasters warn it still has the potential to become very active. Once storm activity begins in earnest, conditions could intensify rapidly.

Last Tuesday saw the formation of the season’s first named storm, Andrea, which developed over the open Atlantic but dissipated by Wednesday without threatening land. Now, with less than a week passed, the NHC is tracking a disturbance in the tropics that could be a sign the season is ramping up.

Meteorologists predict between 13 and 19 named storms in the Atlantic basin this year — compared to the typical average of 14. Of those, 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher.

Meanwhile, the Pacific hurricane season is running about a month ahead of schedule, with Tropical Storm Flossie — the sixth named storm — strengthening south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. It’s expected to become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Is a tropical storm or hurricane coming toward Texas?

As of early Monday, there’s no immediate threat of a tropical storm or hurricane approaching Texas.

The newest disturbance being monitored by the National Hurricane Center is expected to stall later this week off the southeastern U.S. coast. It could develop into an area of low pressure near Florida by the holiday weekend. The broad system stretches across Florida, from the northeastern Gulf to Atlantic waters off the southeastern coastline.

Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.

"A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.

"Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average which can aid in development in the outlooked area."

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Barry — the second named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season — formed in the Bay of Campeche and made landfall in eastern Mexico on Sunday evening. It’s expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico by Monday. While Barry poses little threat to Texas, it could increase rain chances in the Houston area through late Monday.

Could a tropical storm impact Texas over the holiday weekend?

NHC currently does not forecast tropical activity around Texas in the next seven days.

Hurricane Beryl casted a long shadow over Texas during the Fourth of July weekend in 2024, even before it made landfall.

Leading up to the holiday, Beryl was already a powerful Category 5 hurricane as it churned through the Caribbean in early July. While it hadn’t yet reached Texas by July 4, its looming presence brought scattered thunderstorms, rip current warnings, and coastal flooding risks along the Texas Gulf Coast. Many outdoor Independence Day celebrations were scaled back or canceled due to the uncertain forecast and deteriorating weather conditions.

Beryl made landfall near Matagorda, Texas in the early hours of July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane with winds up to 90 mph. The storm caused widespread power outages affecting over 2.7 million customers, especially in the Houston area. According to the International Medical Corps, 64 people died during Hurricane Beryl.

What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean:

• Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving westward around 11 mph.
• Tropical wave 2: Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N, moving westward around 17 mph.
• Tropical wave 3: An Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles along 59W, south of 15W, moving west at around 11 mph.
• Tropical wave 4: A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W from Hispaniola to Colombia, moving west at around 23 mph.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity o ccurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.