Texas Fourth of July Weather: Cooler Temps, Possible Rain

Whether you're planning a backyard barbecue, a beach getaway or just hoping to catch fireworks under clear skies, knowing what the weather might bring on the Fourth of July is key.

Although early forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center called for near- to above-normal temperatures, the latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now shows most of Texas can expect below-normal temperatures on the Fourth of July — with no part of the state expected to reach triple digits.

What's the Fourth of July weather forecast?

Texans will get a reprieve from extreme heat this Fourth of July, and with partly cloudy to overcast skies across much of the state, the weather should feel relatively pleasant compared to past years of scorching temperatures.

There’s a slight chance of rain across Texas, with higher odds in western areas later in the day — from the Abilene region to Pecos and north to Wichita Falls and Amarillo. In Central Texas, any showers are expected to be brief and limited to the morning through early afternoon. The Fort Stockton area has the highest chance of daytime rain Friday, but skies should clear across most of the state by evening, just in time for fireworks.

Meanwhile, the Farmers’ Almanac, which released its summer forecast in early spring, predicted “big thunderstorms” in Texas and severe weather — including possible tornadoes — stretching from Oklahoma through Arkansas and Louisiana. However, a more recent extended outlook from the publication, published in late May, offers a different tone for Texas and Oklahoma between July 1–12, calling for "sunny" and "hot" conditions.

The almanac claims its predictions are accurate about 80% to 85% of the time. However, a review by the Columbus Dispatch found that most independent analyses suggest the almanac’s accuracy is closer to 50%.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, tornadoes are currently not expected in the U.S. on Friday.

Fourth of July forecasts by cities in Texas

Here's what the Weather Channel has forecasted for the Fourth of July weekend across Texas:

Austin

• Conditions: Morning showers, cloudy skies early
• Low: 92 degrees
• High: 76 degrees
• Normal: 95 degrees
• Precipitation: 43% chance

Amarillo

• Conditions: Mostly cloudy early, then afternoon sunshine
• Low: 67 degrees
• High: 92 degrees
• Normal: 92 degrees
• Precipitation: 11% chance

Dallas-Fort Worth

• Conditions: Cloudy
• Low: 77 degrees
• High: 88 degrees
• Normal: 94 degrees
• Precipitation: 24% chance

El Paso

• Conditions: Sunny
• Low: 76 degrees
• High: 98 degrees
• Normal: 97 degrees
• Precipitation: 2% chance

Houston

• Conditions: Mostly cloudy
• Low: 79 degrees
• High: 94 degrees
• Normal: 94 degrees
• Precipitation: 21% chance

Lubbock

• Conditions: Morning clouds, afternoon sun
• Low: 71 degrees
• High: 94 degrees
• Normal: 93 degrees
• Precipitation: 20% chance

Midland-Odessa

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Low: 73 degrees
• High: 94 degrees
• Normal: 95 degrees
• Precipitation: 15% chance

San Antonio

• Conditions: Morning showers cloudy
• Low: 76 degrees
• High: 90 degrees
• Normal: 94 degrees
• Precipitation: 37% chance

Tyler

• Conditions: Cloudy
• Low: 75 degrees
• High: 90 degrees
• Normal: 93 degrees
• Precipitation: 10% chance

Waco

• Conditions: Mostly cloudy
• Low: 76 degrees
• High: 89 degrees
• Normal: 95 degrees
• Precipitation: 24% chance