Spotty thunderstorms linger this weekend in Austin but how much longer until it ends?

If you are planning to spend the weekend outdoors, the daily rain chances in Central Texas will remain in place Saturday before slowly coming to an end. A strengthening ridge of high atmospheric pressure is expected to settle over Texas during the latter half of the weekend and persist into next week.

However, keep in mind that forecasts can change quickly, as we saw this past week. Let’s approach this weekend’s outlook with cautious optimism, keeping the wise saying in mind: “Fool me once, shame on you, Mother Nature. Fool me twice, well, that’s just Texas weather for you.” To stay ahead of the weather, make sure you keep an eye on forecast updates and have a place to seek shelter indoors if the weather takes a turn.

What’s behind the July rain?

For the past several days, remnants of Tropical Storm Barry and a trough of low atmospheric pressure have lingered over Central and South Texas. Coupled with moisture-rich, humid air driven by southern winds from the Gulf of Mexico, this has resulted in widespread, heavy rainfall.

Though the main lifting mechanism that has led to rain clouds is supposed to exit the region, the environment will remain humid and the atmosphere will stay unstable. A mid-level trough of low atmospheric pressure over the Edwards Plateau will be interacting with an unseasonably moist air mass, according to the National Weather Service.

“The mid-level feature and unseasonably moist air mass linger and will generate isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms… through Saturday, though activity will wane, at times,” the weather service said in a forecast bulletin Friday.

Similar to Friday across the Hill Country, forecasters could issue another flood watch for Central Texas on Saturday.

Because of the clouds and continued chances of rain, temperatures will be near normal or slightly cooler for the weekend. Highs in the 80s to low 90s with lows in the mid-70s. On average, the first weekend of July is expected to have a high of 95 degrees and a low of 75 degrees.

“The mid-level feature lingers into Sunday,” the weather service said. “Although, moisture levels decrease as some subtropical ridging (of high atmospheric pressure) begins to build over our area, they remain elevated to allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.”

The Hill Country to the Rio Grande Plains are favored to receive the most rainfall. High pressure will build out more fully over South and Central Texas next week, forecasters said. That will lead to diminishing rain chances.

“The only rain chances will be with the sea breezes near the Coastal Plains each afternoon,” the weather service said. “However, should a stronger mid-level feature linger, then rain chances will extend to other parts of our area.”

How rare is this wet weather in early July?

While July has been wet in the past, this year stands out as we’re nearing Austin’s average July precipitation. Typically, one of the city’s driest months, Austin as of Friday afternoon has already received more than 2 inches of rain compared to the climate-average for the month of 1.96 inches.

Since record-keeping began in 1898, over 50 Julys have exceeded 2 inches of rainfall. Remarkably, 1919 and 1903 hold the top spots, with several thunderstorms dumping over a foot of rain. In 1979, Tropical Storm Claudette added to the record books with an impressive 10.54 inches of rain.