Austin Sees First Dry Day in Over a Week Amid Saharan Dust, Rising Lakes

After several days of spotty showers, a few stronger storms, and sporadic sunshine, Austin has virtually zero rain chances on Thursday, according to the National Weather Service. Instead, skies may turn hazier as another wave of Saharan dust moves into South and Central Texas.

Thursday in Austin will be sunny, with daytime temperatures reaching around 95 degrees and southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, gusting up to 20 mph. Humidity will push heat index values to as high as 101. Overnight, clear skies will keep temperatures above 75 degrees.

Rain chances are diminishing "as ridging (high pressure) strengthens somewhat Thursday and some Saharan dust works into our area," the weather service said in a forecast bulletin Wednesday. "The first dry forecast in well over a week is forecast for Thursday with highs warming into the 90s, closer to seasonal normals for early to mid-July."

Despite the break from rain, Lake Travis and other Highland Lakes along the Colorado River will continue to rise, though more slowly than in recent days. Lake Travis rose over 17 feet within 48 hours after catastrophic flooding during the Fourth of July weekend, according to data from the Lower Colorado River Authority. As of Wednesday, its surface elevation was 659.42 feet above mean sea level, up from 637.33 feet a week ago. The lake is considered full at 681 feet.

At Lake Buchanan, the surface elevation was 1,012.88 feet, up from 1,002.52 feet a week ago. It is considered full at 1,020 feet. The LCRA warns against boating or swimming due to flood debris, fast-moving water, and increased bacteria levels.

Friday will be mostly sunny in Austin, with highs near 94 degrees and continued southerly winds. "Friday looks like another dry day, something we are very thankful for, given our recent significant rains," the weather service said.

However, rain and storms are possible over the weekend as a weak disturbance lingers over northern Mexico. "The most favored location for locally heavy rainfall appears to be the Coastal Plains both days, but some heavier rainfall could work further inland to the I-35 Corridor and Hill Country," the weather service said, noting potential rainfall of a few inches.

Austin has a 50% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, with highs around 92 degrees. Rain chances drop to 20% at night. Sunday brings a 40% chance of rain during the day, decreasing to 20% at night.

"Beyond the weekend, subtropical ridging looks to build into East Texas by the beginning of next week, resulting in drier and hotter conditions for mid-July," the weather service said. Evaporating soil moisture may also increase humidity and heat index values.