2025 Hurricane Season Forecast: Texas Faces Elevated Risk

A new forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is out — and it's a mixed bag.

Colorado State University meteorologists now predict a “slightly above normal” season, with up to 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger).

The concerning part: They expect a higher chance that major hurricanes will strike the U.S. rather than weakening over open water.

"We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," researchers said.

In April and June, university researchers predicted an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic, with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The reason for the slight drop in numbers in the July forecast are "high levels of Caribbean shear," which are associated with less-active hurricane seasons, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune reported.

So far this year, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is off to a relatively quiet start compared to last year, with only three tropical storms making landfall in the last two weeks. The Pacific hurricane has so far had six named storms with two major hurricanes — about a month ahead of schedule.

What are the chances of Texas getting hit by hurricane in 2025?

CSU calculated the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles for each state from Texas to Maine. Here are the probabilities of the following tracking within 50 miles of Texas:

• Named storm: 67%
• Hurricane: 41%
• Major hurricane: 18%

Probability of named storm tracking within 50 miles of US states: See list

• Florida: 90%
• North Carolina: 74%
• Louisiana: 72%
• Georgia: 69%
• Texas: 67%
• Alabama: 64%
• South Carolina: 63%
• Mississippi: 59%

Probability of hurricane tracking within 50 miles of US states: See list

• Florida: 62%
• North Carolina: 43%
• Louisiana: 43%
• Texas: 41%
• Georgia: 35%
• South Carolina: 33%
• Alabama: 32%
• Mississippi: 32%

Probability of major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of US states: See list

• Florida: 33%
• Texas: 18%
• Louisiana: 17%
• North Carolina: 9%
• South Carolina: 10%
• Alabama: 10%
• Mississippi: 9%
• Georgia: 7%