Rainfall continues to threaten Austin this week but when is drier weather coming back?

We kicked off the work week Monday with a wet and rainy start across Texas, as more rain and thunderstorms spread into the Texas Hill Country and Central Texas. The National Weather Service on Monday extended its flood watch across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor until 9 p.m. that night.

With the ground in our region of Texas already saturated from this month’s heavy rainfall, any additional storms would likely to lead to runoff and more flooding. To manage floodwaters flowing out of the Hill Country and into the tributaries of the Highland Lakes, the Lower Colorado River Authority announced on Monday that the agency was opening at least two floodgates at Buchanan Dam to release storm runoff flowing into Lake Buchanan from the San Saba River and the upper Colorado River.

July 2025 already is shaping up to be one for Austin’s weather record books. The month so far has secured a spot among the top 10 wettest Julys on record at Camp Mabry, and we have 18 days still left in the month. The average rainfall total for the first two weeks of July in Austin is just shy of an inch, but July 2025 so far has produced 5.7 inches of rain.

As scattered showers and storms diminish overnight, enough moisture will be left across the region on Tuesday to allow for more storm development with help from daytime heating. Luckily, the extent of the rain will be more isolated than widespread.

Rain machine off, heat machine on

Partly because each day recently has come with a chance of rain and plenty of cloudiness, temperatures have stayed cooler than normal for July, topping out in the 80s and low 90s for the past week. That trend will soon change once rain chances end and a drier weather pattern gets established over Texas by the middle of the week.

The latest guidance from weather forecast models showcases a subtropical high pressure system nudging into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico, which will lead to a drying trend across South and Central Texas from Wednesday through Friday.

Temperatures will steadily climb to our seasonal normal of 96 degrees later in the week. Peak daytime temperatures on Wednesday are expected to stay in the low 90s, but warm up to the mid-90s by Thursday and Friday. However, humidity will remain a factor. With so much atmospheric moisture, dew point temperatures will stay in the 70s. The muggy air will drive up heat index values, making those 90-degree afternoon temperatures feel more like 100 or 102 degrees.

Keeping an eye on the Gulf

The National Hurricane Center has identified an area of low atmospheric pressure that’s expected to move west across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. This system is expected to track westward on a course parallel to the northern coastline of the Gulf. The system is likely to produce heavy rainfall from northern Florida to the upper Texas Gulf Coast later this week and into the weekend.

As of Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center gives this low pressure system a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours but a 30% chance of development in the next seven days.

Based on the current forecast guidance, no model suggests a tropical storm. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding are possible, mainly over Florida through Tuesday, where 4 to 8 inches of rain could fall across a large section of the state.