Gulf Tropical Disturbance Could Threaten Flooded Texas with More Rain

A system of low atmospheric pressure just off the east coast of Florida has drawn attention from the National Hurricane Center as it produced scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

Weather models predict the low-pressure system will move over Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane center forecasters are monitoring its development closely.

TROPICAL DANGERS IN TEXAS: San Antonio, inland Texas regions share increased risk of hurricane flooding, damage

"Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf," the agency wrote in an update Tuesday morning.

The system has a 40% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. If it develops a well-defined center of circulation with wind speeds of at least 40 mph, it would be classified as a tropical storm and named Dexter.

Texas does not need more rain

After relentless thunderstorms in recent weeks, Texas could use a break from rainfall. Flooding across the Hill Country has been catastrophic in July, with isolated flooding also affecting areas from Dallas to Houston and down to the Rio Grande.

San Antonio has avoided major flooding in July but was devastated by the deadly Beitel Creek flash flood on June 12. Since May 22, the city has recorded 14.09 inches of rain—the highest in that timeframe since 2002.

Austin, meanwhile, saw little heavy rainfall until the deadly Fourth of July flooding, which claimed at least a dozen lives in the metro area. Since July 1, the city has recorded 5.7 inches of rain, surpassing the 5.58 inches recorded for the entire month in 2014.

Much of South-Central Texas remains saturated, meaning even minor additional rainfall could trigger new flooding.

The storm’s path

Current model data suggests the tropical disturbance, whether it strengthens or not, will likely stay east of Texas. Forecasts indicate it will track along the northern Gulf before making landfall in Louisiana by week’s end.

The system could bring heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Central and Southern Louisiana. Far East Texas, including Houston, Beaumont, and the Piney Woods, may see some rain on Friday.

Most of Texas, including the hard-hit Hill Country, is expected to avoid significant impacts. Instead, dry conditions are forecast through the weekend and into next week as high-pressure systems strengthen over the south-central U.S.