US Senate battle: Will Rep. Wesley Hunt shift Texas GOP primary race?

WASHINGTON — Is the contentious U.S. Senate Republican primary in Texas headed toward the way of the film noir classic, “The Third Man?"

Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, locked in the political fight of his career, frequently clashes with challenger Attorney General Ken Paxton as they gear up for the March contest.

Establishment GOP groups are sticking with Cornyn, who was first elected to the Senate in 2002, while remaining concerned by polls that show him trailing miserably — as much as 22 points behind Paxton. Those Republicans, however, are even more worried about Paxton’s ethics baggage — from having been indicted for securities fraud to being impeached on 20 charges and acquitted in a party line vote in the state Senate — fearing it could cost the party the seat in the general election.

So, will there be a plot twist?

U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, is looking more and more like he is in the mix. He is certainly exploring entering the race — with statewide ads by an independent group boosting his name recognition by touting him as a pro-Trump lawmaker — so much so that he is included in much of the recent polling.

“I’m hearing he’s definitely running,” one Texas member of Congress, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations, told the American-Statesman.

Hunt, 43, who is African American, a West Point graduate and a military veteran, is only in his second term in the U.S. House but has worked to get close to President Donald Trump, especially as a leader of Black Republicans. One of the TV ads by the independent pro-Hunt group, Standing for Texas, ran in the West Palm Beach, Fla., market, where Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home is located and where its intended viewer saw it.

“I love your commercial,” Trump told Hunt at a White House event in April.

The ad calls Hunt “a fearless America-first Republican who stands with President Trump to put Texas first.”

Hunt has reportedly met with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and other White House aides about entering the race, according to the Associated Press. His entrance in the race could further complicate an endorsement pick by Trump.

Paxton is close to the president and was with him on the Ellipse on Jan. 6, 2021. Cornyn, a former majority whip, has been less of a cheerleader but was key to getting Trump’s agenda through the Senate in his first term and is central to the looming battle in the upper chamber to secure the president’s budget bill by July 4.

David McIntosh, president of Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group, has discussed a possible run for Senate with Hunt. “He’s extremely interested,” said McIntosh, who is influential in elections through the group’s political action committee and candidate scoring on economic issues.

In the 2024 scorecard, Hunt received a 100% score, and Cornyn got a 62% rating. That reflects the disaffection among hard-right GOP primary voters for Cornyn.

‘A probability game’

Recent polling underscores the challenges facing Cornyn. According to a May 28–June 1 survey by the conservative American Opportunity Alliance, Cornyn trails Paxton by 17 percentage points (52% to 35%). Similarly, a late-May independent poll by the Educational Freedom Institute found Paxton leading by 22 points (50% to 28%).

A poll conducted by the Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP leadership political action committee supporting Cornyn, shows the incumbent trailing by 16 points (56% to 40%). In a three-way race, the April 27–May 1 survey showed Paxton with 44% support, Cornyn with 34% and Hunt with19%, according to Punchbowl News, which first reported the findings.

A May 9-19 poll by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University showed Paxton with a narrower 43% to 34% lead over Cornyn. Forty percent of poll respondents remained undecided about Hunt, suggesting room for growth.

“While nine out of 10 likely GOP primary voters know enough about Paxton and Cornyn to have an opinion about voting for them, only six out of 10 know enough about Wesley Hunt to have an opinion about voting for him,” said Mark P. Jones, a Rice University political science professor and co-author of the report.

Asked about his low poll numbers, Cornyn said, “Nobody’s entitled to these seats. I look forward to the competition and taking the issues to the voters. I’m proud of my track record – never lost an election.”

In a jab at Paxton, the senator added, “I believe that character still matters to Texans. We will be telling that story.”

Cornyn also brought up poll results that show Paxton losing a general election.

“I don’t think Republicans want to risk losing a Republican seat,” he said. “I’m confident of winning the race but it’s very early.”

Dave Carney, who is Gov. Greg Abbott’s political adviser and a veteran of Texas politics, said he doesn’t look to polling for what may happen in the race. “You have to win it in the trenches,” he said. “I don’t think polls this far out are going to deter John Cornyn.”

It also takes a lot of money to run a statewide campaign. Texas has 20 media markets.

“Hunt needs at least as much money to introduce himself to the voters,” as he does to run a campaign, said Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “In a case like this, Hunt needs $10 million to $20 million to start.”

Jillson said the Republican primary base has changed so that the choice is stark: “The Republican primary voter is looking for a fight, be it abortion, guns or prayer in schools.”

Hunt is laying low on talking about the Senate race — his campaign did not respond to Statesman requests for comment — but he’s speaking out on issues that are critical to Trump, and the base, like immigration. On Tuesday he sent a letter to Houston and Harris County officials calling for resistance to protests scheduled Saturday, when Trump was hosting a military parade in Washington.

“On Saturday, June 14th, more than 1,800 rioters are being mobilized across the country, including in our city of Houston. These rioters are encouraging mass destruction—burning flags, destroying public property, and inciting violence against law enforcement and ICE agents,” Hunt said. “This is unacceptable and will not be tolerated."

Democrats, whose last Senate candidate, former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas, lost to Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by 9 percentage points, and who is considering a 2026 run, are skeptical of minority inroads in the Texas GOP.

“The landscape is littered with minority Republicans who thought they could win in contested elections,” said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic PAC. “Republicans have built a party that one of its pillars is racial animosity.”

Although it remains unclear if Hunt will enter the race, candidates can file their GOP primary candidacy from Nov. 8 to Dec. 8, according to the Texas Secretary of State.

“It’s a probability game,” Jones said. "If you’re Hunt, you wait as long as you can. There is a lane for him. The longer he waits, the clearer it will be."