GOP Targets Key Democratic Seats in Texas Redistricting Push

President Donald Trump's push to redraw Texas's congressional districts ahead of next year's midterms has set off speculation about which Democratic seats Texas Republicans are going to target.

The move, which would entail shifting GOP voters into Democratic districts, has riled some Republican incumbents, who have quietly complained of the potential damage to their own reelection prospects. But Trump is eager to maintain a Republican majority in the U.S. House, and appears willing to gamble to protect against a potential Democratic wave in the midterms.

READ MORE: Why a walkout on GOP redistricting could be very risky for Texas Democrats

"It has the potential to go wrong," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. "Gerrymandering could go wrong or things change and you redraw districts in ways that hurt you."

A letter from the Department of Justice to Gov. Greg Abbott earlier this month cited legal concerns about four congressional districts now held by Democrats: TX-09 (Al Green), TX-18 (vacant, formerly Sylvester Turner), TX-29 (Sylvia Garcia), and TX-33 (Marc Veasey).

But it's unclear whether the party plans to go after those specific seats, or are instead using questions' about them to justify the opening up of the map in the first place.

The Texas Senate wasted no time before wading into the battle shortly after the special session of the Legislature began the Monday, establishing a special committee and laying out proposed ground rules for holding hearings on how any newly redrawn districts might look.

The special panel's chairman, Republican state Sen. Phil King of Weatherford, acknowledged that he has not yet seen any proposed maps and that he does not intend to submit his proposal that could give the GOP up to five additional seats until later in the process.

For now, Trump and Abbott are keeping their plans to themselves, but political observers in Washington and Austin alike have zeroed in on a handful of districts that Republicans are most likely to go after.

District 28: Henry Cuellar

With a federal bribery indictment hanging over his head, veteran U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of South Texas is believed to be among the most likely targets of Texas Republicans.

District 28 has grown steadily more Republican in recent years, with Democrats only enjoying a two-point advantage among likely voters, according to an analysis of voting data by The Texan. The GOP hopes to continue building on the rising support it has found from Hispanic communities along the border and in other parts of the state.

Speculation that Cuellar specifically could be a target grew this week after the New York Times reported the Justice Department was going ahead with its bribery case against him. That comes despite support earlier this year from Trump, who called Cuellar, who is among the House's most conservative Democrats, a "respected Democrat Congressman" in a Truth Social post in May.

Bringing more Republicans voters into Cuellar's district would likely mean taking them from adjoining Republican ones, namely U.S. Reps. Tony Gonzales and Monica De La Cruz.

District 34: Vicente Gonzalez

After eight years in the House, U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is part of a shrinking group of centrist Democrats, serving as co-chair of the chamber's Blue Dog Coalition.

Like Cuellar, his district has grown increasingly Republican since 2022, potentially opening the door to a pro-Trump candidate.

In November, Gonzalez narrowly defeated former congresswoman Mayra Flores, whose campaign outspent his $6.9 million to $3.1 million.

But shifting District 34's lines poses a risk for incumbent Republicans whose districts abut Gonzalez's, like De La Cruz and Rep. Michael Cloud, but Trump appears willing to gamble.

"(Trump) is willing to take the risk because if he doesn’t odds are he doesn’t have the majority (after the midterms)," said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. "There's a scenario where Trump's approval ratings are high and the economy is doing well and you could pull it off."

District 7: Lizzie Fletcher

Fletcher, a former Houston energy attorney, is also expected to be among those targeted in redistricting.

Another centist Democrat, she narrowly won the seat from former Republican U.S. Rep. John Culberson in 2018. After her district was redrawn in 2021, she sailed to reelection, beating Republican challenger Caroline Kane by 22 percentage points in November.

Republicans could try and redraw her district closer to what it was in 2020, when U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is now in the 38th District, lost to her by only three points.

Such a move would likely mean making Houston-area Republicans like Hunt and U.S. Rep. Troy Nehls run in more competitive general elections than they have been used to.

But considering both won by more than 20 points in November, they have plenty of votes to spare.

District 32: Julie Johnson

The newly-elected Democrat from North Texas is also on many observers' lists of likely targets for Republicans.

The first openly gay member of Congress from Texas, Johnson represents a largely suburban area stretching northeast of Dallas, which is surrounded by Republican districts.

But drawing more Republican voters into Johnson's district could leave the GOP incumbents surrounding her in a tricky spot. District 24, represented by U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne of Dallas, has one of the highest percentages of Democratic voters of any GOP-controlled district in Texas — only U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales has more Democrats in his district. And U.S. Reps. Keith Self and Pat Fallon aren't doing much better.

To take out Johnson, they'll likely need to move Republican voters from one if not all those districts, potentially opening the door for Democratic inroads in North Texas.

Districts 35 and 37: Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar

Representing two sides of deeply Democratic Austin, redrawing either Doggett or Casar's district could potentially allow Republicans to pick up a seat in Central Texas.

To do so they would likely need to move Democratic neighborhoods into GOP districts represented by U.S. Reps. Michael McCaul, Chip Roy and Michael Cloud.

So far Doggett and Casar haven't talked much about themselves being targeted. Like the rest of the Democratic party, they have attacked the redistricting effort as an attempt to subvert the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits districts from being redrawn in a way that packs minorities into a single district.

But Casar acknowledged redistricting had the potential to boost Democrats. The president's party usually loses seats in Congress in the midterms — the only exception since World War II being George W. Bush in 2002.

"Republicans are going to have to chop up their own districts," Casar said. "If it's a wave year, some of these Republicans might lose their seats."