Texas Republicans see 2026 opening as poll shows faint economic uptick

The dominant political narrative for much of the past year has been that Democrats are sitting pretty heading into the 2026 midterms, while Republicans will be swimming against an upstream current, weighed down by the heavy millstone of President Donald Trump strapped tightly around their necks.

But a newly released poll of Texas voters suggests that while Republicans have more reason for worry than celebration 11 months before the November election, there is a largely buried — and perhaps unrecognized — glimmer of hope that they might catch a break in the fall.

Let's get the GOP's bad news out of the way first in the poll of 1,200 self-identified registered voters conducted by the Texas Politics Project and released Friday. Trump's approval rating in Republican-led Texas is underwater. So are those of pretty much every Republican holding statewide office and those running for statewide office.

On a dozen issues state leaders tackled in the 2025 Legislature, respondents in the poll, taken Dec. 9-13, gave failing marks to 10. And on eight of them, the disapproval-to-approval ratio hovered close to 2-1.

Ironically, even that faint ray of sunshine for Texas Republicans looks, at first blush, like another cloud. It has to do with the economy, both at the national and personal levels, and the overall direction of the state and the nation.

More than one-third of respondents said the national economy was in poor shape, and only 24% said they themselves were doing OK financially. And that, paradoxically, is the good news.

Here's why. In February, only 20% of Texans said they were happy with their own financial well-being. That survey came one month into Trump's return to the White House and represented a 5-point drop from when Democratic President Joe Biden was still in charge. Confidence in the national economy had been dropping since April, falling to 27% in August. The latest poll shows a 7-point rebound.

Confidence in the economy, whether at the household or national level, has historically been one of the strongest bellwethers for how voters will react at the polls. The trick ahead for Texas Republicans is to sustain the modest momentum that surfaced in the poll.

Now let's look at why the poll might be putting a spring in the steps of Texas Democrats. First, their signature issue of health care is the top concern of most respondents. And unease about its affordability cuts across party lines. Overall, a whopping 89% said they are worried about the cost of heath care, and most said they are "very concerned." The pollsters said a key driver was the debate during the recent government shutdown over whether Congress would fully fund the Affordable Care Act.

Also, the poll suggests that, as in the 2018 midterms, Trump may once again be a gift to Democrats — given that midterm elections are often a referendum on the current occupant of the White House. Not only does he have a 44% approval to 50% disapproval rating, Trump's standing among Texas Republicans is down 10 points since returning to power.

To be fair, that drop was from 92% to 82%. But in each of the six polls taken by the Texas Politics project over the past year, Trump's approval rating among his own party has been lower than in the one before.

One more striking nugget in the poll involves Democrats' attitudes toward the candidates in their primary for U.S. Senate. Few political figures in Texas have drawn more media attention — much of it favorable — than state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, both in the run-up to his announcement for Senate and in the months since.

But the poll showed that only one in three Democrats have heard enough about him to form an opinion. Among those who have, 47% said they like him.

Contrast that with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas. She entered the race just over a month ago, but she has been a national figure for nearly four years, giving her name identification far exceeding Talarico’s.

More importantly, that visibility appears to have solidified her standing among Texas Democrats. Seven in 10 said they like her, and five in 10 said they like her a lot.

With the March 3 primary approaching — sooner still when factoring in early voting, which begins Feb. 17 — Talarico will need to become better known, and better liked, among a much larger share of Texas Democrats.The task for Crockett, on the other hand, is to not lose any ground.