Texas voters worry about economy, but Republicans still lead: poll

Texas voters are frustrated with the economy and uneasy about the future, but they are not yet ready to take it out on incumbents at the ballot box, according to a recently released survey of 1,200 registered voters.

The Texas Politics Project poll finds widespread concern about rising gas and grocery costs and global instability, along with lukewarm support for top Republicans. Still, GOP candidates hold narrow leads in most matchups, pointing to an unsettled electorate heading into November.

Initial coverage of the poll understandably centered on the finding that state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, was leading both of his potential Republican rivals in the U.S. Senate race. After all, a Democrat winning the top election on the statewide ballot in ruby-red Texas would have seismic national implications and would no doubt dominate the chatter on cable news networks in the days after the Nov. 3 election, and possibly into that weekend.

But the polling results — with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points — are more nuanced once you drill down into some of the other personalities, and into the issues that have Texans on edge. Three out of four respondents said they are concerned about the price of gasoline at the pump, which is about $1 per gallon higher than it was a year ago.

Six in 10 described themselves as "very concerned," and the results were similar when they were asked about the cost of everyday goods and healthcare. Just under half said they don't approve of President Donald Trump's decision to wage war on Iran, including 24% of self-described Republicans.

Asked about their own personal finances, 55% said they are worse off economically than they were a year ago. Two in 10 said they doubt things will get better anytime soon. And only 45% of Texans said they approve of the job Trump is doing, even though he won the state by a 14-point margin in 2024.

Still, Talarico's 7-point lead over four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and his 8-point margin over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are locked in a battle for the Republican nomination in the May 26 runoff, is something of an outlier as November approaches. Given a generic choice between a Republican candidate and a Democratic candidate for the Legislature, the generic Republican holds a 44-40 advantage, the poll shows.

The generic Republican also leads in a hypothetical congressional race, but the margin was a bit tighter at 43-41. Interestingly, both hypotheticals showed that 16% of voters would choose a candidate from outside the major parties or said they were not yet ready to make any choice at all.

For those keeping score, Republicans hold 24 of the state's 38 congressional districts (with a Republican-leaning seat vacant). In the 31-member state Senate, Democrats increased their number to 12 when they flipped a Republican seat in a special election in January. And in the state House, Republicans hold an 88-62 majority.

The poll also gives Republicans the edge in the top two races in state government, but the margins are narrow. Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, leads Democratic nominee state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin, 44-38. The poll assumes that in the lieutenant governor contest, Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin of Austin will defeat labor union official Marcos Vela in the runoff, but shows three-term Republican incumbent Dan Patrick leading her 35-31.

A worrisome note for Abbott and Patrick, in addition to holding only single-digit leads and neither topping 50%, is the high number of undecideds in both races. Both Republicans are known quantities, having each served in their offices for nearly 12 years. And each has proven quite adept at drawing headlines during their long stretches of service.

If voters, taken as a whole, were content and happy six months out from November, it would be logical to expect that incumbents like Abbott and Patrick would be cruising in the polls. It would be equally logical to assume that the generic Republican-Democratic matchups would be equally lopsided, given the GOP's decadeslong dominance in Texas.

Instead, the voters appear grumpy. And grumpy voters can be unpredictable at best, and unforgiving at worst.