Why Obama came to Texas to back Talarico and Hinojosa

When Barack Obama made his surprise appearance in Austin last week with U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico and gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa, the former president gave Texas Democrats and Republicans something they could use as the 2026 midterm election cycle barrels toward November. Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, Texas Democratic Senate candidate and Texas state Rep. James Talarico, and former President Barack Obama visit the Taco Joint on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Joel Angel Juarez, Pool) The advantage for the Democrats is obvious. Obama has been the party's most effective mobilizing force of the 21st century, even before leaving the White House with two largely scandal-free terms under his belt and handing off a stronger national economy than the one he had inherited. But the upside for the GOP is that, in Texas, Obama was never quite able to parlay his popularity among Democrats into support from independents — much less Republicans. He lost Texas in both of his presidential elections, and he lost by more on his second try, when voters could assess his first four years in the White House. One explanation might be that Obama is playing the prediction markets in his head. Polymarket, for instance, gave Talarico a 47% chance of winning as of Friday even though Republicans won't settle on a nominee until May 26. This isn't to suggest that Obama is risking his children's inheritance on Texas' U.S. Senate race. Instead, he's putting his political capital on the line. He likely sees Talarico as a comer, and if Talarico wins, he won't be content to ride the Senate's back bench — at least not for long. As Jen Psaki, deputy White House press secretary in Obama's first term and now a host on cable's MS NOW, put it: "I know from experience that my old boss, Barack Obama, picks the places he campaigns — especially post-presidency — very carefully."