As Biden and Trump Near Nominations, a Look at What Ifs

President Biden’s debate performance was panned, leading some Democrats to worry about his ability to beat Trump in November. Trump, despite his strong standing, faces questions about his age and felony conviction.

Scenarios:

Presumptive Nominee Steps Down Before Convention:

Biden shows no willingness to step down, with party leaders expressing confidence. A switch is unlikely without widespread public opposition, per experts. Timing is key, with conventions soon: July 15-18 (R) and Aug. 19-22 (D).

Dislodging Biden is difficult, due to delegate loyalty. Forcing him out requires delegates to appeal to a party rule of conscience. If Biden cedes, allocated delegates choose. He could endorse VP Harris, but she's not guaranteed, facing potential competition.

Any contest for the presidential nominee would begin with 4,000 regular delegates. A majority win is key; a second ballot brings superdelegates. Running mate rules bar same-state pairs, e.g., Harris-Newsom or Trump-Rubio.

The Republican process is similar, but Trump's party strength makes his removal unlikely. Any last-minute change breaks the standard choreographed nominee ritual, becoming a lobbying show for delegate support.

Democrats plan to nominate early due to Ohio ballot concerns, by Aug. 7, post-debate.

Nominee Quits Before Election Day:

Different rules apply if nominated but not yet elected. If Biden dies/becomes incapacitated, Harris becomes President. If he resigns, Harris assumes the role immediately.

For Democrats, the DNC would name a successor, likely Harris if desired. A new VP would be chosen, as in 1972 with Shriver after Eagleton's exit.

Republican rules are unclear. While a reconvened convention is possible, an alternative method is likely, per Putnam.

Post-Election, Pre-Inauguration:

If the elected president dies pre-inauguration, the VP-elect becomes President. A new VP is approved by Senate and House, like Nelson Rockefeller post-Nixon.

Per WaPo, if the winner dies after electoral votes but before Congress's count on Jan. 6, the outcome is unknown, even to the records agency.

Contributors:

Marta Campabadal Graus, PolitiFact staff writer