Post-DNC Bump Not Reflected in Betting Odds for Harris-Trump Race

Despite the Democratic National Convention, the betting market for the presidential race remains uncertain. Vice President Kamala Harris is either a slight favorite or tied with former President Donald Trump across various bookmakers.

• Offshore Bookmakers (Bovada and BetOnline) favour Harris narrowly.
• U.K. Bookmakers (Bet365 and Betfair) show the odds as a tie.

Over $5.125 million was wagered at Betfair Exchange during the DNC week, legally unavailable for U.S. bookmakers. Initial support for Harris has waned recently.

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Current Presidential Election Odds (as of August 26)

Betfair Exchange

• Kamala Harris: +102
• Donald Trump: +105

Bet 365

• Kamala Harris: -110
• Donald Trump: -110

via Covers.com

Bovada

• Kamala Harris: -115
• Donald Trump: -105

BetOnline

• Kamala Harris: -120
• Donald Trump: EVEN

Oddschecker

• Kamala Harris: +102
• Donald Trump: +106

Historical Accuracy of Election Odds

Betting favorites have historically been accurate, losing only twice since 1866 (The Conversation), including 1948 when Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey.

Harris holds the narrowest lead over Trump compared to recent Democratic nominees at the 75-day mark. Hillary Clinton held odds of -323 in 2016 but lost the election, one of the two times an underdog won.

Tim Walz was initially not favored for Harris' vice-presidential pick, with Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly as early favorites, though Walz rose in odds near the end.