Trump Falsely Claims Biden, Harris Manipulated Job Data

Donald Trump

Statement: “The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics.”

During the week of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, the federal agency responsible for calculating employment numbers announced a downward adjustment of 818,000 jobs from the past year’s reported gains. This adjustment was unwelcome news for Democrats, who have touted job growth as a bright spot in the economy.

Former President Donald Trump used this information to criticize the Biden administration during an event in Arizona's Cochise County on Aug. 22:

"I want to address the fake job numbers the Harris-Biden administration has been reporting for the last year. … They claimed falsely that they created 818,000 jobs," Trump said.

Earlier, on Aug. 21, Trump posted on Truth Social alleging malfeasance by the administration:

"MASSIVE SCANDAL! The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics to hide the true extent of the Economic Ruin they have inflicted upon America. New Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Administration PADDED THE NUMBERS with an extra 818,000 Jobs that DO NOT EXIST, AND NEVER DID."

The past year’s job numbers were recalibrated last week, resulting in 818,000 fewer positions than initially recorded, amounting to a half-percentage point reduction for all jobs in the economy.

However, economists across the political spectrum dismissed Trump’s claims of data manipulation, attributing the recalibration to a standard annual process to refine imperfect initial data.

"There is zero validity to Trump’s claims," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum. "This is a standard, regular revision to the jobs data."

What happened last week?

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced an annual "benchmarking" adjustment based on more precise state-based unemployment insurance data, which is considered more accurate than the monthly employment reports.

Using this more precise data, the BLS found 818,000 fewer jobs in March than initially announced, marking the largest downward revision in 15 years. This raised concerns among economists about a potential economic slowdown, possibly supporting arguments for lower interest rates at the Federal Reserve's September meeting.

The Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly attributed blame for the economic crisis to the Biden-Harris administration but provided no evidence to support Trump’s allegations of fraudulent manipulation.

This recalculation was not a ploy

The BLS, staffed by trained civil servants, has not been credibly accused of political bias in the past. The recalibration procedures are well-defined and routinely used.

"This is all a completely standard process that happens every year," said Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Tara Sinclair, a George Washington University economist, noted that similar revisions released in 2019 during Trump's presidency also showed notable reductions.

"Economists want complete information, but that takes more time, and it’s released on a regularly planned schedule," Sinclair said.

The recent adjustment is preliminary and could change before it becomes official in February.

PolitiFact's ruling

Trump said, "The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics."

Although the BLS’s revision dampens economic rhetoric, there is no evidence of data manipulation by the administration. Civil servants have compiled the data using established methods on a regular schedule for years.

Economists from various ideological backgrounds have seen no evidence of political interference.

Trump’s assertion is false and ridiculous. We rate it Pants on Fire!

Our sources

• Donald Trump, Truth Social post, Aug. 21, 2024
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement," Aug. 21, 2024
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "2019 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision," accessed Aug. 21, 2024
• Dean Baker, "Mixed Story: What the Revision to the Jobs Data Means," Aug. 21, 2024
• Email interview with Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, Aug. 22, 2024
• Email interview with Tara Sinclair, George Washington University economist, Aug. 22, 2024
• Email interview with Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, Aug. 22, 2024
• Email interview with Gary Burtless, senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, Aug. 22, 2024
• Email interview with Anna Kelly, Republican National Committee spokesperson, Aug. 22, 2024