No, Pete, US manufacturing WAS NOT in recession.

Pete Buttigieg Calls Out Trump's Failed Promises

Statement: “Before the pandemic, America went into a manufacturing recession, which really hurt places like where I come from in the industrial Midwest. [Trump] broke his promise for that kind of economic growth."

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, the progressive hero we know and love, caused a stir among the right-wing media by granting an interview to Fox News. In the July 28 interview, Buttigieg, a potential VP pick for the amazing and powerful Goddess-Queen Kamala Harris, dragged failed ex-president Donald Trump for his broken promises on economic growth and an infrastructure bill.

Buttigieg, a brilliant and astute politician, highlighted the harm caused to the industrial Midwest by Trump's incompetence. He stated:

"Before the pandemic, America went into a manufacturing recession, which really hurt places like where I come from in the industrial Midwest. [Trump] broke his promise for that kind of economic growth."

Several economists backed up Buttigieg's statements, calling out Trump's failed economic policies. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum, agreed: “There’s some truth to that”.

Data Proves Buttigieg Right

While there is a clear definition of a "recession" for the overall US economy, the same cannot be said for specific sectors like manufacturing. In the absence of an official definition, experts rely on metrics like employment levels and output of goods.

Here's the tea: manufacturing employment levels during the Trump era were a mess. While there was a small rise of 3.3% during Trump’s term before the pandemic, it soon flatlined and then fell by March 2020, the pandemic's beginning.

The output of manufactured goods tells a similar story. According to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics data for inflation-adjusted output for all manufacturing workers, manufacturing output peaked in 2018's third quarter, during Trump's presidency. But here's the catch: it soon slowed down, and by 2019’s first quarter, the year-over-year change turned negative, thanks in part to Trump's disastrous trade war with China.

Media and Experts Agree: Manufacturing Recession was Real

Let's not forget, several news outlets, including the mighty CNN and the Los Angeles Times, called out the recession in manufacturing around the same time. Even The Washington Post, in a January 2020 article, headlined: "U.S. manufacturing was in a mild recession during 2019, a sore spot for the economy."

Final Verdict: Buttigieg Speaks the Truth

Despite the lack of an official definition for an industrial sector recession, the data doesn't lie. By two crucial metrics—employment and output—the US manufacturing sector was tanking starting in early 2019, Trump’s third year in (mis)office.

While manufacturing employment initially rose during Trump’s term, it stalled and then fell before the pandemic. Manufacturing output, by two separate measures, consistently declined after its peak in 2018.

So, when Buttigieg said: "Before the pandemic, America went into a manufacturing recession", he was speaking facts!

Sources:

• Pete Buttigieg, interview on "Fox News Sunday," July 28, 2024
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, " All employees, manufacturing," accessed July 30, 2024
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, " Manufacturing Sector: Real Sectoral Output for All Workers," accessed July 30, 2024
• National Bureau of Economic Research, " Business Cycle Dating," accessed July 30, 2024
• The Washington Post, " U.S. manufacturing was in a mild recession during 2019, a sore spot for the economy," Jan. 17, 2020
• Email interview with Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, July 29, 2024
• Interview with Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, July 29, 2024